French Open preview 2010

The draw is out and with Nadal seeded at No. 2 there is not much doubt that he will meet Federer in the finals, even though both have some tricky match-ups on their way to the final weekend.

Especially Nadal might have two tough matches before a potential final with “Fed”. But after a very convincing clay court season from Nadal, I don’t have many worries that he will jump over those two hurdles. But those jumps might cost him a lot of energy and might open the door for Roger, who has a little easier draw.

So, since everybody expects Federer and Nadal at least among the last 4 players, who will be the other two players, who are most likely to join them in the semi-finals?

In Federers half of the draw, the top seeded players to meet him in the semi final are Murray and Tsonga. Both did not have a great clay court season this year and might not even get to the semi-final at all.

But there are some other dangerous players who are more confident on clay and had some good results this year already.

First of all it’s Mikhail Youzhny who won a tournament on clay this year already and climbed up the rankings lately. Now he is seeded at 11 and might be the big surprise in the semi finals.

The other hot players are Berdych, Baghdatis, Isner and De Bakker.

Berdych did not play well on clay this year but had a great tournament in Miami on hard court. If the conditions are hot and dry for the next 10 days he might get through, even though he has to beat Isner, and Baghdatis or Murray to reach the quarter final already.

Tsonga will face De Bakker in the 3^rd round and he lost to him this year on clay already. Youzhnys draw is much easier. He will not waste too much energy before he faces Tsonga or De Bakker. But all these players are very unpredictable. Especially Tsonga will face a lot of pressure infront of his home crowd.

If I had to pick a player in this part of the draw, it would be Youzhny. All the other players rely too much on good weather conditions (Berdych, Murray, Isner, Tsonga).

But all these players won’t give Roger much trouble in the semi final.

And before the semi final “Fed” might face Soderling or Cilic in the quarters. Also not much trouble for him, I think.

In Nadals part of the draw, his potential semi final opponents are Roddick, Djokovic, Ferrer and Ferrero. And besides these players are not many in this section of the draw, who have the potential for a surprise up-set or have made a splash in this years clay court season yet.

But Ferrer is probably the best clay court player behind Nadal and Federer this season. Ferrer would be a big challenge for Nadal and this match might go the full distance of five sets and cost Nadal a lot of Energy before the potential final with Roger.

But before Nadal gets to the semi final he has to beat Verdasco in the quarters first, which will not be much easier than the semi final match up with Ferrrer. And I see another tricky match for him in the round of the last 16 with Thomaz Bellucci from Brazil. A lefty and a great clay court player, who has won on this surface this year already. Nadal faced him at the French in 2008 already, but now Bellucci is a much different player and way more dangerous for Rafa.

All in all Rafa faces more challenges on his way to a potential final with Roger and it will be crucial for him to save as much energy as possible.

Here are my picks for the quarters and the semis:

Quarterfinals:

Federer – Soderling:                        Federer in 3

Muray – Youzhny:                                    Youzny in 5

Ferrer – Djokovic:                                    Ferrer in 4

Nadal – Verdasco:                                    Nadal in 4

Semifinals:

Federer – Youzhny:                        Federer in 4

Nadal – Ferrer:                                    Nadal in 5

Check out my final prediction next time…

Hardy Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

www.HesseTennisTraining.com

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals

Sweet Revenge For Nadal

It was the 21^st match between Federer and Nadal, and even though Nadal won 13 of the previous meetings, he has never been this eager to win against Roger like this time.

Too tough were the last 12 months since he lost the final against Roger in Madrid a year ago. His parents divorce and his knee injury ruined a great start of the season for him. He lost his first match at Roland Garros, was not able to defend his Wimbledon title and on top of that lost his no. 1 ranking to Federer again, who also took the French Open title from him. It was clear from the start, that Rafa would fight till the last drop of blood to beat Roger in the first meeting after one year of disappointments.

And it was probably the first time that Roger really had to prove something, even though he is clearly the no. 1 in the world with almost double as many points as Nadal. But a year ago he collected only his second win on clay against Rafa in Madrid. The only other time he beat him on clay was in wet and cold Hamburg, on a day Roger was not able to miss a shot in the last two sets of the match. And last year, Rafa had to play an extremely tough 4-hour match against Djokovic the day before. On tope of that too many other matches in the clay court season. Besides these two wins, Federer was always dominated by Rafa on clay and never really had a chance to win the French Open against him. And deep inside he probably knew that he would have not won the French Open by now, if Nadals knees had been fins last year and there would have been more harmony in his private life. And maybe Federer would not be no. 1 today…

Federer knew he had to prove a lot. And Rafa was eager to show the tennis world that Federer will not win the French Open, when he is healthy. Even minutes after the match he was sitting on his bench and pumped his fist again and again. This showed how much this win meant to him. It was a very, very sweet revenge after a year of torture.

So, there was a lot on the line this time. But more importantly, there was more to lose for Roger than to win. And for Rafa there was much more to win than to lose. And this is how they played. Both were very nervous, but in the crucial moments of the match, Rafa had more to win and therefore was more positive. And he was happy, healthy and not tired this time. And then it is nearly impossible for Roger to beat him.

Even though I think that Roger deserves to win the Grand Slam this year, I am afraid that it will not happen, because Rafa has gained so much confident through out the clay court season, that he will win in Paris as well. He planed his season much better this year and will be fresh and confident. On top of that Davydenko and Del Potro, the two players who could beat him on clay, will not participate at the French Open. It all went his way after the Australian Open, and that’s why he will win the French. Probably in the final against Roger, but Roger will not be happy with 2^nd place again…

Because then there is no doubt at all anymore, that his win at the French last year, was only possible because Rafa lost to Soderling.

Hardy Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

www.HesseTennisTraining.com

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals

Clay Court Season 2010 - a Latin Love Affair!

The first month of the European clay court season is over an it is time for a short check-up on who is among the favorites for the French Open.

So far it is only a handful of players who were able to claim a clay court title this year and in April all of them carried a Spanish passport.

But the rest of the season was pretty much a Latin love affair, as well. Only one “white boy” was able to claim one of the 9 tournament titles handed out on the red dirt this year.

And guess where he is from?!? –Switzerland of course. But surprise, surprise – it was not Roger who did it. It was Stan Wawrinka who took the title in Casablanca, Marocco in the beginning of April.

All the other winner came either from Spain or South America. Nadal took the two ATP-1000 series titles in April, Juan Carlos Ferrero also captured two titles and fellow spainiards Verdasco and Ferrer won one event. The other two winners are Brasilian Thomasz Belluci and Juan Ignacio Chela from Argentina.

So, who else will be among the contenders for the French this year?

For sure it is Roger, who has an easy draw in Estoril this week and will probably win and get some confidence for his title defense in Madrid.

Robin Soderling, who reached at least a final against Verdasco, is also playing quite well and might have a chance to get to the semis at Roland Garros.

The most disappointing performance comes from Murray and Djokovic who did not do much damage on clay yet. But as soon as the French start and we will play best of five  sets, they will be there again, I’m sure. But I don’t see more than a quarterfinal for them.

Del Potro and Davydenko are still out because of injuries and this made it much easier for the Spanish clay court specialists so far. But at least Davydenko might be back for the French. But it remains uncertain, if he can show up with confidence and some clay court wins in his bag.

So, far it all looks like a Latin love affair in Paris or Nadal and Federer again will get it on again... ;)

Let’s see…

Hardy Hesse

Hesse Tennis Training

Professional Training and Coaching for Top Juniors and Professionals