Why Rafael Nadal will win the US-Open and win more Grand Slams than Roger Federer!

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

Roger Federer suffered a really hard loss yesterday against Novak Djokovic and finished the last Grand Slam of the year in the semi finals, a very disappointing end of the Grand Slam season 2010 for him.

But what might be the end of the Federer reign, might be the start of an even more dominant leader of the pack for the next years to come. Rafael Nadal will not only end this years rankings as No. 1, but he might be the first player in history to have double as many points as the no. 2 player. 

Rafael Nadal

And that shows how much he improved his game over the past years. While Roger Federer was not able to improve his backhand and his return game, Nadal worked with the same intensity on the weaker parts of his game, as he does in every match he plays on tour. He improved his serve speed, his backhand, the depth of his shots and his net game. And most importantly he is playing closer to the baseline which allows him to end the points quicker and make him move less. With his new and more aggressive game style he finishes his opponents faster and saves a lot of energy and therefore has fewer injuries.

The hard work and the courage to make some changes in his game and with his strings paid off and now he is in the US-Open final for the first time. And I am sure he won’t be there for the last time, if he stays healthy and keeps working on his game like he did. What will happen to Roger Federer remains to be seen and his fans can only hope that he will not blame and injury or illness for his loss, like he did after Wimbledon. If he is not willing to improve and work on his game anymore, he might not win another major. And then I can see Rafael Nadal passing him and winning more than 16 Grand Slams.

A disappointed Federer at the press conference after his loss to Djokovic

I am sure Nadal will win his 9^th Grand Slam title today, even though some stats might indicate a very close match between him and Novak Djokovic. But when it comes to the big matches on the big stage, Rafa was always there and was able to play at his best. But more than that he is able to will his way to success, and that is something that he does better than anybody else. Better than Novak Djokovic, even though Novak is in great form, holds a 7-4 hard court record against Nadal, won the last 3 meetings of the two, has the game-style to beat him on hard courts and should be loaded with confidence after defeating Federer.

But Nadal will be the fitter player, because he had much more time to recover after his semi-final win over Youzhny and has spent less time on the hard courts of New York so far. On top of that he has some other stats in his favor, that point him out as the favorite in this match. Nadal was broken only twice in more than 90 service games he played at the Open. He had 37 aces to the 22 of Djokovic, had only 11 double faults to Novak’s 24 and saved 88% of the break points against him compared to the 72% of Djokovic. So, he is clearly the better server in this match-up, which hasn’t been the case in the previous meetings. The stats on the return games are almost even. Both players are considered the best return players on the men’s tour and have proven it once more in this tournament.

But the key to Nadal winning tonight will be his new aggressive game, which makes him less vulnerable to the Djokovic offence. Nadal will not give him the opportunity anymore to take his balls on the rise and hit winners from both wings, because his serve is much better now and he himself takes the balls on the rise and gives Djokovic less time to get in position for winners.

So, I think we will see the Spaniard taking his first, but for sure not last, US-Open crown today. And this will make him the youngest career grand slam champion (winning all 4 slams) in history and only the second player in history to win 3 slams in a row in the same calendar year (after Laver).

And hopefully Roger will not quit and come back strong next year to challenge him…

HARDY HESSE

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Hartmut Hesse Tennis

Super Saturday at US-Open!

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

Like always at the US-Open, the two men’s semi finals and the women’s final will be played on Saturday. No. 2 seed Kim Clijsters will take on no. 7 seed Vera Zwonarewa and the top 3 men’s seed, Nadal, Federer and Djokovic will be joined by no. 12 seed Mikahail Yuzhny. No US player on Super Saturday is a big disappointment for the New York fans, but everyone is hoping for the big final between Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal on Sunday.

Roger, Kim and Rafa at US-Open Exhibition

It would be the first meeting at the US-Open for the two great rivals and the first overall final for Nadal. On top of that he would have the great opportunity to be the second over all player in history to win 3 consecutive majors in one calendar year, after Rod Laver.

But before he can think of a final against Federer, he has to overcome the “Youzhny-hurdle” to get there. It sounds not too difficult, but it might be a difficult match for Rafa, because the fearless Russian, has nothing to lose in this match at all. And for Rafa it is the biggest opportunity to make some history. The match-up is a good one for him though, since his heavy top-spin balls is one of the reasons why he seems to dominate the single handed backhand-players at will and also holds a 14-7 record against Federer. And playing right-handed Youzhny today could be the perfect warm up for the possible Federer match tomorrow.

But Federer has a high road to ride himself, before he can go for a 6^th consecutive US-Open title on Sunday. Even though he defeated the same opponent in the semi’s of  the past two US-Open already, Djokovic is playing much stronger and solid at this year’s Open. He easily beat Fish and Monfils in 3 sets and looks very ready to give the big Fed a hard time today.

But no matter what, Nadal and Federer always have to be considered the heavy favorites when they play in the semi final of a Grand Slam. So, it will be exciting and fans will cheer for a dream final on Sunday, 5-time champion Roger against No. 1 Nadal.

On The women’s side there is a clear favorite, even though Vera Zwonarewa is this year’s Wimbledon finalist and the shooting star of 2010. But 2 time and defending champion Kim Clijsters played better and better in every one of her matches and defeated Sam Stosur and Venus Williams in great fashion. She has the experience and the form to beat the Russian in 2 sets and take her 3^rd US-Open crown and another step towards the no. 1 world ranking for the end of the year.

It will be a great day of tennis, even though many New Yorker will have to put some sad thought in the back of their had today, in order to enjoy only tennis on this September 11^th.

May it be a day of great tennis AND happiness!

HARDY HESSE

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Hartmut Hesse Tennis

Kim Clijsters again in Final of US-Open

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

Kim Clijsters played a great match last night against Venus Williams to reach her 3^rd consecutive US-Open Final and will meet Vera Zwonarewa tonight to defend last years title.

Kim Clijsters

After a good match against Sam Stosur, she even raised her level to another gear to beat the only American left in the men’s or women’s draw of the tournament. After losing the first set 4:6 she was able to break Venus in her first service game of the second set. But she was not able to serve out the set and had to go to a tie-breaker to decide the set in her favor with 7:2. The third set was a very close one, as well, but when Venus Williams, also a two time US-Open champion like Clijsters, had to serve at 4:5 to stay in the match, the pressure was to much for Serenas big sister and she was broken by a determined Kim Clijsters. On match point, Clijsters not only showed great tennis, but also big celebration after winning it. It was a great match point and a great match from both players who had to deal with swirling winds throughout the whole match and handled it great.

Now Kim Clijsters has to be named the clear favorite against the up-coming Russian, who reached this year’s Wimbledon Final already and played also a good match against no. 1 seed Caroline Wozniacki to reach the US-Open final.

The match between the two blonds will take place after the men’s semi finals tonight at 7 p.m. .

HARDY HESSE

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Hartmut Hesse Tennis

Best Matchpoint ever by Fernando Verdasco

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

Not all the internal affairs between two good friends and players from the same country and Davis-Cup teams are always good matches. But this one was! And it was the best match of this years US-Open so far.

Fernando Verdasco

When Fernando Verdasco and David Ferrer met on Louis Armstrong Stadium at 4 p.m. in the afternoon they did not get all the attention form the New York fans right away. But 4 hours and 23 minutes later the stadium was packed with emphatic fans cheering as loud as they possibly could and rising from their seats to give both players a standing ovation for the best match at this US-Open, and maybe for all of 2010 so far.

It was Fernando Verdasco, who made several comebacks during this encounter between two good friends, and finished the match in a style the tennis world has not seen so far. It was the best and most spectacular matchpoint I have ever seen. It ended the match in the tie-breaker of the fifth set with the score of 7:4 for Verdasco.

Check out the video to see the whole point at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEuAyEkRwrM

But it was not only this match point that put an exclamation mark to this match. The whole match was hard to top in dramatics and shot making. Ferrer tok a 2 set lead which was sealed by a tight tie-breaker in the second set ending at 10:8 for Ferrer. And Ferrer was also up with a break in the fifth set and was leading 4:1 in the tie-breaker of the fifth set. But all that was not enough to beat Fernando Verdasco yesterday. The good looking Spaniard showed unbelievable willpower and never gave up, no matter what score. Especially against a master of footwork and fighting spirit, like David Ferrer, his performance was simply amazing.

He will be tired but loaded with confidence for his meeting with Rafael Nadal in the Quarterfinal. And the semi-final match against Nadal at the Australian Open 2 years ago, was probably the second best match of his career, even though he lost it.

Nadal has a great record against Verdasco but he never faced him with this much confidence yet. And with “only” Youzhny or Wawrinka waiting in a potential semi-final, he should not put too much pressure on himself to miss this great opportunity to reach his first US-Open final.

There are some great matches coming at us at the Open, Federer facing Soderling and Monfils against Djokovic today and tomorrow you should look out for Nadal against Verdasco!

HARDY HESSE

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Hartmut Hesse Tennis

Big Sunday at US-Open!

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

The tennis fans in the Big Apple are treated to a really tasty Big Burger of tennis this Sunday. With a lot of big stars in action and some very interesting match-ups this will be the first high light of this year’s Open. And because it is Sunday the stars will start at 11 a.m. already.

The first match on Center Court will be Ana Ivanovic against defending champion Kim Clijsters. Both have been very convincing in their first rounds and did not drop a set yet), which is not a big surprise for Kim Clijsters. But Ana Ivanovic has struggled for more than a year now and to see her back in form is good news for her fans. But unfortunately you never know how long it will last with her. But she has not much to lose against the 2 seed from Belgium, who is the tournament favorite to many, after Serena Williams had to cancel the Open due to injury. So Kim is the favorite in this one, but you never know what you get from Ivanovic and she might come up with a great match. And the guys will always have something to cheer when she plays anyways.

The next match on Arthur Ashe Stadium is Venus Williams against Shahar Peer. Venus is the last big hope for the US fans on the women’s side, and with her sister missing the tournament, she will be eager to bring another trophy to the Williams household. The No. 3 seed is the favorite in this match, but Shahar Peer is a great competitor and will not leave the stadium without showing the 20,000 a big fight. If Venus will be able to handle the pressure and will be able to thrive on the cheers of the New York fans, who always loved the Williams sisters, she will make it through to the quarters.

Where she will meet the winner of the Schiavone – Pavlyuchenkova “fight’. This match will be a great fight, which you can always expect when French Open Champion Schiavone hits the courts. But now she will meet another screaming and scratching player from Russia, who was a former No. 1 in the Juniors and has tons of potential. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, has a good hard court game and it will be very interesting to see how she will handle the backhand slice of Francesca, who will try to slow down the game and force her to miss her shots. This match will be on Luis Armstrong Stadium at 11 a.m. and might not get as much attention as it should, because the Clijsters – Ivanovic match will be taken place at Arthur Ashe at the same time.

The last women’s match today will be the night session at Arthur Ashe between Sam Stosur and Elena Dementieva. To me Stosur is one of the 3 big favorites for the title this year. With her kick serve she will give Dementieva a lot of trouble to get into the rallys on this surface. And if Sam Stosur is able to dictate with her forehand, I don’t see many chances for the Russian on her own serve either. But if Sam Stosur’s game would be predictable and if she would be mentally stronger, she would have won a few slams already. So, let’s see what we will get in this match. For sure two of the best athletes in women’s tennis.

On the men’s side there are even better matches coming up today and every one of them will be as unpredictable as the swirling winds on the courts yesterday. Even Rafa Nadal, who is one of 7 Spaniards among the 16 men in action today, is not the clear favorite in his match against Frenchman Gilles Simon. Simon beat him on a hard court once already and if he is still fresh enough after his 5 set win over Kohlschreiber, this could be a very exciting match on center Court. Simon has the game and the talent to take Nadal’s shots on the rise and play with the power that Rafa gives him. This could be a tough one for Nadal and even though Simon was struggling lately, and dropped out of the top 10, he will use the confidence from the first rounds to show the crowd a big fight.

The night session on center court will feature big American John Isner, who will take on Russian Mikhail Youzhny. Isner who is coming off a foot injury played very strong so far and is one of 3 men standing from a country that has been a strong tennis nation once. The other US players still in contention for the title, are Fish and Querrey, who are playing Djokovic and Almagro. From those three Isner probably has the best chances to advance to the next round, even though Youzhny is a fierce competitor and will try to fight Isner’s big serve and the NY crowd until the last ball is played.

But the biggest match-up on the men’s side will be between David Nalbandian and Fernando Verdasco. Former No.3 in the world, David Nalbandian, just made a great comeback from his Hip surgery and played a remarkable hard court season so far. Along with Mardy Fish, Andy Murray and Roger Federer, he showed the best form during the big hard court events before the US-Open. I see him as the favorite in this match, but No. 8 seed, Verdasco will fight like a Spanish bull to stay in the top 10 and reach a spot for this year’s ATP-Tour finals at the end of the year. This match could easily go 5 sets, but for sure it will bring us high quality tennis.

Another high quality match will be Andy Murray against Stan Wawrinka. Even though Wawrinka did not get the great results he looked for during the hard court season, he showed much better fitness and form in his matches. I expect a close one here, since both players breezed through their first two rounds without losing a set. This one could also go all the way to a 5 setter, but you still have to name Murray the favorite in this match-up. His double-handed backhand is still better than Wawrinka’s, who has one of the best single-handed backhands in the game.

The rest of the matches do not feature the big names in tennis, but are all interesting and wide open. The aggressive Llodra, who defeated Thomas Berdych will take on solid and experienced baseliner Tommy Robredo. Sam Querrey, who won 4 tournaments this year already, will play big hitting Spaniard Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez will battle it out with Sergiy Stakhovsky in an all out offence match. The last match will hold another two Spanish players in the run for a spot to play the winner of the Nalbandian – Verdasco match. Here David Ferrer will play Daniel Gimeno-Traver and the internal affairs are always very interesting to see.

So, there is plenty of high quality action today and if the weather holds up, the New Yorkers and many fans on TV will be treated to a great day of tennis.

HARDY HESSE

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Big 4 still alive at US-Open

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

Even though there have been some big upsets in the men’s draw of the US-Open, the big four are still alive and all look sharp and ready to win the title. But there are 3 more matches left for them to reach the semi-finals, with some difficult matches ahead of them to get there.

Nadal will have a tricky match against Simon, who beat Nadla on hard court already, before he runs either into Stakhovsky or Lopez. But the real trouble will come in the quarterfinal match, where he might face Ferrer, Verdasco or Nalbandian.

Andy Murray might get the easiest quarterfinal match against Isner, but will have his hands full in the next round against Wawrinka and then probably against Sam Querrey.

Djokovic has also some US boys in his way to a possible quarterfinal against Gasquet or Monfils. He will face Blake in his next match, who always had great support from the fans at the US-Open. And if he beats him he will face the most dangerous player in his section of the draw, Mardy Fish.

Roger Federer might have the toughest of all quarterfinal match-ups, but therefore some beatable opponents on his way to the quarters. He will face Mathieu in his next match and then the winner of Ferrero and Melzer, which is a very open match for me. But non of them should give him big trouble to reach the match against Soderling, that every looking forward to. Not only because he is the no. 5 in the world, he is the toughest player to face in the quarters for any of the top 4 players. He is very dangerous and has beaten Fed at a slam already. Something not many players have accomplished yet.

So, all top 4 players have their hands full, but things are looking good that the fans at the open will be treated to a “big 4” semi-final day. Something we haven’t seen in a long time at a grand slam.

HARDY HESSE

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Roddick and Berdych out of US-Open!

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

Two big upsets rattled the New York crowed yesterday and took the biggest hope of the US fans out of the draw. Andy Roddick not only lost in 4 sets to Janko Tipsarevic from Serbia, but this loss might have ended his hopes for another year end top ten ranking and a participation at the ATP-Tour Finals in London. And the way Roddick lost his match might have even more serious consequences for the A-Rod fans. A disappointed Roddick threw 4 of his Babolat rackets into the crowd when he left the court. And some of his fans might be afraid that he will throw the rest of the rackets soon… Roddick turned only 28 two days ago, when he came up with a convincing, but easy first round win to celebrate his birthday with the New York crowd. But it seems as if he is on the tour for ever and even though he worked with some of the finest coaches during this long career (Brad Gilbert, Jimmy Connors) he never lived up to his and the fans expectations after winning the first Grand Slam in the Big Apple at the age of 20. Not even the smart Larry Stefanki was able to fine-tune the hard-hitting Roddick. And when you look at the way Roddick played against Tipsarevic and in recent months, since he started working with Stefanki, it seems like his coach has tamed the danger out of the Roddick game. Once a fear less ball striker, Roddick was turned into a counter punching ball machine with a big serve, a good forehand, but no backhand and still no net game. And just keeping the ball in play was not enough yesterday, against a fearless Tipsarevic, who did not beat big A-Rod for the first time at a slam. He handed him his earliest exit at Wimbledon in 2008, where he also beat him in the second round. But this loss might be much more disappointing for Roddick, and it will be interesting to see how he will handle it this time?! If he handles it at all. He made enough money and he is a married man now who might want to think about kid and is tired of all the traveling… and another disappointment of not winning another major in his career. If he keeps playing he is very likely to change coaches one more time, since he followed that pattern a few times already.

We will see.

The other big upset and disappointment was the loss of Thomas Berdych against Michael Llodra in straight sets. Berdych was one of the big favorites of the tournament and everyone was looking forward to a potential matchup with Andy Murray in the Quarterfinals. But yesterday we have seen the old Berdych again, who is unpredictable and inconsistent. Everyone was seeing him as the potential new no. one, but potential was always the word that was used together with his name the most. And it seems like the story will continue for a bit more. Llodra broke him down with his serve and volley and constant net approaches and never allowed Berdych to take a breath or find his range. Now the door seems to be wide open for Andy Murray and fans can only hope for a semi final with Rafael Nadal.

Another big disappointment was the early exit of US crowd favorite Melanie Oudin. She will lose a lot of points after her run at last year’s open.

But there is a new player that made the American fans happy and gives hope for the future. 18 year-old Ryan Harrison defeated Ivan Ljubicic and after going through qualification already he won his 4^th straight match yesterday. To beat former no. 3 Ljubicic on this surface is quite a thing and I can’t wait to see more of him. He might be ready for a few more upsets if he has enough gas left in the tank. His draw is good for at least to more wins, before he runs into Nadal… For sure a night session and something to look forward to for the American fans and US tennis in general.

HARDY HESSE

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2010 US-Open preview part 2

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

Today I want to take a look at the women’s draw of the 2010 US-Open.

It will be almost as interesting and wide open as the men’s draw, because Serena Williams and Justin Henin will miss the event due to injuries. This makes last years finalist and world no. 2, Caroline Wozniacki the top seed and one of the favorites for the title. It would be her first Grand Slam title and bring her very close to the no. 1 ranking as well. On top of that it will make her a lot richer, since she won the US-Open Series already and this will guarantee her an extra 1 Million Dollars if she takes the US-Open title. But her draw is not easy and it will be the question if she will be abler to handle the pressure of going into the tournament as the top seed or if the pressure and additional attention from the media will be too much for her. Winning the US-Open Series and last years experience of being in the finals will give her a lot of confidence and help her to handle all this.

But I still don’t see her reaching the final, because she will face some tough competition before she will reach a potential match-up with Maria Sharapova in round 4. And I see Maria winning this one in a thrilling night session. But before Wozniacki gets there she will have her hands full with some powerful tennis made in China. Kai-Chen Chang and Yuang-Jan Chan, both from Chinese Taipee, will test Mrs Wozniacki to the limit, because they have even better footwork than the blond Dane. It will not be enough to just keep the ball in play to beat these two great competitors from Taipee. And you never know, maybe one of the two will be the big story of this year’s Open, and take out both, Mrs. Denmark and Mrs. Russia and go all the way to the final!?!

But in the quartefinal there might be not another Mrs. Russia waiting, but at least great Russian footwork from Kuznetsova and more Chinese power footwork, in person of the no 8 seed, Na Li. So it is very likely that there will be a Chinese player reaching the semi finals from this section of the draw.

But today I would put my money on Mrs. Sharapova. She won the Open before, is in form and has the power to beat all the Chinese and Danish roadrunners.

In the next section of the draw, things look a lot clrearer to me, with jelena Jankovic being the highest seed here. She has a tough first round with Simona Halep and maybe a another tricky one with hard hitting Mirjana Lucic, but I think she will go through to face Janina Wickmayer from Belgium, last year’s surprise semi finalist, in the fourth round. This is a good match-up for her and she will win in two sets to face either Nadia Petrova or Vera Zvonareva in the quarterfinals. That will be a big fight for sure, but Jelena’s fitness will win the match for her.

The next section is the Venus Williams Section, which is also a very tough and open one, because there are plenty of up-coming players in this section. Very unpredictable, what is going to happen here!

Melanie Oudin, Polona Hercog, Tsvetlana Pironkova, Ksenia Pervak, Michelle Larcher de Brito and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will challenge the established players like Wiliams, Schiavone, Peer and Azarenka (who is also still very young…). This could be very likely a new face in a Grand Slam semi final. But if Venus is healthy, she will have the power to fight them all off and reach the semis, winning her quarterfinal match against Victoria Azarenka. But any of the new girls will make a break through soon. S, it could also be Larcher de Brito against Hercog… If de Brito screams her way to the semis, the WTA tour has a new star and Portugal a new heroe after Ronaldo choked at the World Cup…

But my money still goes to Venus here!

The last section of the draw holds the top 2 title favorites and a lot of headache players…

I see the highest seed in this section as the top favorites win the whole thing. That would be Sam Stosur and Kim Clijsters, the defending champion. They will for sure meet in the quarterfinals, and I believe that the winner will take the title. Stosur has only one really tough match to get to the quarters and might have to play Safina (who should get her act together soon again..), Elena Dementieva or Daniela Hantuchova, But she is my favorite against each one of them, since all these players are very unstable and will cause their coaches a lot more headaches in the future. Kim Clijsters will face Marion Bartoli or Ana Ivanovic (another headache for coaches…) in her quarterfinal match, but if she is motivated and focused she will win easily.

My Money would go to Kim to reach the semi final, too, but I would rather like to see these two in the final…

If I have to put my money for the final and the winner, it would be Kim over Maria in three sets.

Let’s see if I am right...

Enjoy the Open!

HARDY HESSE

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2010 US-Open preview

By 

HARTMUT HESSE

The 2010 US-Open will kick off tomorrow and it looks like the men’s and the women’s tournament will offer some very interesting matches and a possible first time US-Open Champion. Especially the men’sdraw is as open as it has not been in the past 7 years, since the dominance of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal started. And with Serena Williams not playing this year’s tournament, the women’s draw is also wide open for a surprise champion.

I want to start my preview with the men’s tournament, where Robin Soderling and Thomas Berdych might be two of the hottest candidates for a first Grand Slam title of their career, after reaching their first Grand Slam final this season in Wimbledon (Berdych) and Roland Garros (Soderling). Even though they have not been very convincing in the past hard court tournaments, I am sure that one of them will make a splash at the US-Open this year. Berdych won’t have many problems in his section of the draw, before he might run into Isner or Youzhny in the 4^th round. A match against John Isner, especially at the US-Open, is always a tough one. But I think he will go through, due to his newly found level of concentration and confidence. If he plays Youzhny, I see even fewer problems for him. But in the Quarterfinals he will meet Andy Murray and that will be the match that determines if he is ready for the title this year. I see the match at 50% – 50%, but if Berdych wins this one I think he will reach the Final as well. If Murray wins it, I would still put my money on Nadal, if he gets to the semi final.

Which brings me to the top half of the draw and Nadal’s section. His draw is not easy, because he has red-hot David Nalbandian in his part of the draw. The good news for Rafa is, that Nalbandian has to beat the no. 2 and 3 spanish players (David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco) before he could earn a spot in the fourth round. And these two matches will cost the reignited Argentine a lot of energy, even though I see him as the favorite against both. But before Nadal plays him, he also has his hands full with Michael Kohlschreiber (who trained with Roger Federer to get ready for the US-Open…) and probably Ivan Ljubicic. But I believe Nadal will go through and will face Nalbandian in a tough fourth round, 5 set match. I think that it all depends on how many sets Nalbandian lost to Verdasco and Ferrer, if he has a chance to reach another Grand Slam semi final at the US-Open. But right now I would put my money on Rafa, even though his warm-up tournaments in Cincinnati and Toronta have not been very successful. I think Nalbandian will play 9 sets against Verdasco and Ferrer to reach the match against Nadala and will be very tired. On top of that his Uncle Toni will be on his side again at the Open, and he will be ready and motivated for some tough matches. So my finalist of the top half of the draw will be either Nadal or Berdych.

In the bottom half of the draw Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are the top seeds. Novak Djokovic is running into Marcos Baghdatis or Mardy Fish in the fourth round, which  both showed great form in the past hard court tournaments. And Fish beating Djokovic in Cincinnati. So there might be some surprises around the corner and this section is very hard to predict, since all three players are very unpredictable themselves. If Djokovic goes through he will face more trouble, with Roddick, Monfils or Davydenko. Roddick will have to play Monfils before the winner will face Davydenko. This is probably the toughest section of the men’s draw and I see 6 players with basically the same chances to reach the semi-final.

If I have to put my money now, I would say Djokovic against Davydenko with a slight edge for Davydenko to win it, if he does not lose too much energy against Roddick or Monfils.

The Russian will face the strongest man in the Federer section of the draw, and if you just look at the stats of the past 5-7 years, there could be only one man coming out of this section. And his initials are RF…

But stats are there to be broken and especially after his surprise early exits at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, there are some reasonable doubts. Even though he has the easiest section of the draw to reach the 4^th round and the quarterfinals. He might face a former US-Open champion on his way to the fourth round with Lleyton Hewitt, and maybe plays another one in the fourth round (Ferrero). But both players have never given Roger too much trouble. The highest seed to reach the fourth round against him is Juergen Melzer, but he is not in good form and has not won many matches on hard courts this year. So, from all the top 10 players, Federer is the best bet to reach the quarterfinals. But that’s where the big test will come for him. He will most likely play Robin Soderling in the Quarters, who will have his hands full with De Bakker or Gonzales, and then Marin Cilic before he will have the honor to challenge the big Fed for a semi final spot. I see Federer a favorite for this match with 60%, because he will be very eager to take some revenge for his loss at the French Open, which was favored by many rain delays for Soderling. But with Soderling you never know. If he keeps hitting his winners, not even Fed has an answer…

If Soderling wins this match he will go to another Grand Slam final.

And who knows, it might be the two surprise first time finalists of the French and Wimbledon, who could meet in the final. It might be Berdych against Soderling. Like this at least one of them will have his first Grand Slam crown. And this could indicate a big change to come for 2011, in the Federer-Nadal-dominace of the past years.

But I would prefer another Federer Nadal final for this year’s Open. Berdych and Soderling still have some time left and I am sure the majority of the tennis fans would like to see the same final like I do. And if you just look at the stats, then it simply has to be Roger against Rafa.

Federer is always in the final… and he always played somebody else in the final for the past 6 years. So, why not Rafa?!? If Rafa wins, he would be the only player besides Rod Laver who won 3 consecutive Grand Slams in one year!

Here are some more interesting stats and facts about the past US-Open tournaments:

Nadal on his way to a career Grand Slam– Nadal, who captured his eighth Grand Slam title at Wimbledon last month, is a US OPEN title away from completing a career Grand Slam. The 24-year-old Spaniard reached the semi-finals in Flushing Meadows the past two years. He would be the youngest player to accomplish the feat and he would become the seventh man to complete a career Grand Slam, joining Don Budge, Fred Perry, Roy Emerson, Rod Laver, Andre Agassi, and Roger Federer.

No.1 Update – Nadal enters the US-Open as the No. 1 player for the 59th week overall (as of Aug. 30) in the South African Airways 2010 ATP Rankings, the 10th-most (of 24 players). This past week he tied Jim Courier, who held No. 1 for 58 weeks.  Nadal enters the US OPEN with a 3,530-point lead over No. 2 Federer and he is guaranteed staying No. 1 after the tournament.

FEDERER-NADAL DOMINATION -- Since Nadal won his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros in 2005, he and Federer have combined to win 20 of the past 22 Grand Slam tournaments (except '08 Aust. Open, Djokovic; ’09 US OPEN, del Potro). During that stretch, Federer has won 12 Grand Slam titles and Nadal eight.
    

                                          

2010 Wimbledon                    Rafael Nadal d. Tomas Berdych


2010 Roland Garros               Rafael Nadal d. Robin Soderling


2010 Australian Open            Roger Federer d. Andy Murray


2009 US OPEN                      Juan Martin del Potro d. Roger Federer


2009 Wimbledon                   Roger Federer d. Andy Roddick


2009 Roland Garros              Roger Federer d. Robin Soderling


2009 Australian Open         Rafael Nadal d. Roger Federer


2008 US OPEN                      Roger Federer d. Andy Murray


2008 Wimbledon                  Rafael Nadal d. Roger Federer


2008 Roland Garros            Rafael Nadal d. Roger Federer


2008 Australian Open           Novak Djokovic d. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga


2007 US OPEN                      Roger Federer d. Novak Djokovic


2007 Wimbedon                   Roger Federer d. Rafael Nadal


2007 Roland Garros            Rafael Nadal d. Roger Federer


2007 Australian Open           Roger Federer d. Fernando Gonzalez


2006 US OPEN                      Roger Federer d. Andy Roddick


2006 Wimbledon                  Roger Federer d. Rafael Nadal


2006 Roland Garros            Rafael Nadal d. Roger Federer


2006 Australian Open           Roger Federer d. Marcos Baghdatis


2005 US OPEN                      Roger Federer d. Andre Agassi


2005 Wimbledon                   Roger Federer d. Andy Roddick


2005 Roland Garros              Rafael Nadal d. Mariano Puerta

Check out my next blog, where I will take a look at the women’s draw.

HARDY HESSE

HESSE TENNIS TRAINING

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